Strategy Backtest v3
Your $482,701 in cash deployments, March 2021 → April 2026. Strategy with the new activation ladder rule.
With the strategy (v3)
$965,662
6.07 BTC · 82.6 SOL · $358K yield · $145K S&P
+$482,961 (+100.1%)
vs
What actually happened
$189,586
0.31 BTC · 511 SOL · $43K yield · $0 S&P
39-coin zombie graveyard
−$293,115 (−60.7%)
The gap
$776,076
Same cash. Same timing. Different rules.
Freedom progress at April 2026
70.4%
$357,547 yield bucket × 11.8% blended APY = $3,516/month passive
Target: $5,000/month ($508K at 11.8%)
FINAL PORTFOLIO BREAKDOWN — APRIL 2026
What the strategy built
SOL
$7,337
82.6 SOL (rebuilding)
Yield
$357,547
$3,516/mo at 11.8%
S&P 500
$145,390
Untouchable
CYCLE 1 — 2021 MINI-BULL
SOL
Activation ladder — cycle 1
May '21
🟢
ACTIVATE: avg entry $19.39 × 2 = P₀ $38.78 (SOL intra-month high $43). Limits placed at $78 / $155 / $310.
Sep '21
🔔
Ladder #1 (2×P₀): sell 22.1 SOL @ $78
$1,711 → yield
Nov '21
🔔
Ladder #2 (4×P₀): sell 12.9 SOL @ $155
$1,994 → yield
Nov '21
⚡
Euphoria override: sell remaining 12.9 SOL @ $203 — 3+ signals present
$2,607 → yield
BTC
Euphoria sell — cycle 1
Nov '21
🔔
20% trim at 3+ euphoria signals: sell 0.0504 BTC @ $61,004. Split 50/50 yield + S&P. Position was small at this point because bear DCA hadn't had time to accumulate.
$3,077
BETWEEN CYCLES — 2022 BEAR
YIELD → BTC
Deep bear deployment
Jun '22
🔔
BTC hit 50% below $69K ATH (price $29,799). Deployed 30% of yield bucket into BTC from Ledn liquid layer.
$10,708 → 0.36 BTC
Those 0.36 BTC are worth ~$27,000 today. Rule 2 worked exactly as designed.
CYCLE 2 — 2023–2025 MAIN BULL
SOL
Activation ladder — cycle 2 (the big one)
Dec '23
🟢
ACTIVATE: avg entry $24.27 × 2 = P₀ $48.53 (SOL hit $59 intra-month). Limits at $97 / $194 / $388.
Jan '24
🔔
Ladder #1 (2×P₀): sell 464.5 SOL @ $97
$45,089 → yield
Mar '24
🔔
Ladder #2 (4×P₀): sell 238.4 SOL @ $194
$46,272 → yield
Jan '25
⚡
Euphoria override: TRUMP memecoin mania + SOL $295 ATH, 3+ signals. Sell remaining 272.4 SOL @ $189.
$51,552 → yield
Total extracted cycle 2: $142,913 to yield. SOL never hit the 8×P₀ target of $388 (topped at $295), but euphoria caught the peak.
BTC
Euphoria sell — cycle 2 (huge)
Jan '25
🔔
20% trim at euphoria: sell 1.326 BTC @ $94,420. By this point, 2.5 years of 60% bear DCA had accumulated a ~6.6 BTC stack. The 20% trim is massive.
$125,176
Split 50/50 → $62.6K to yield + $62.6K to S&P. This single event is why v3 has $358K in yield vs $167K in v2.
BACKTEST EVOLUTION
How the rule changes moved the number
| Version |
Rule |
Total |
Yield |
Freedom % |
| Reality |
39 coins, no exits |
$189,586 |
$43K |
8% |
| v1 |
Broken — sells stuck at 3 |
$841,573 |
$120K |
14% |
| v2 |
Fixed reset, tiny fragmented sells |
$798,114 |
$167K |
20% |
| v3 ✓ |
Activation ladder at 2× avg entry |
$965,662 |
$358K |
70% |
ROOT CAUSE — WHERE THE $776K GAP COMES FROM
| Factor |
v3 Strategy |
Reality |
Delta |
| BTC accumulated |
6.07 BTC |
0.31 BTC |
+5.76 BTC |
| SOL extracted to yield (both cycles) |
$149K |
$0 |
+$149K |
| BTC euphoria sell (Jan '25) |
$125K captured |
$0 |
+$125K |
| Yield→BTC deploy (Jun '22) |
0.36 BTC @ $29.8K |
$0 |
+$27K (and counting) |
| $ into dead alts (WILD, JOE...) |
$0 |
~$150K+ lost |
$150K saved |
| S&P 500 (untouchable) |
$145K |
$0 |
+$145K |
Why v3 beats v1 and v2
The old "value doubles" rule either fired too early on micro-positions (v1/v2) or got stuck and stopped firing (v1). The new activation ladder waits for SOL price to double from avg entry — a real signal that SOL is running — then places limit orders at 2×/4×/8× of that price. When the big SOL move hit in 2024, the ladder captured $91,361 in planned sells at $97 and $194, then euphoria added another $51,552 at the top. The position size at each sell was meaningful because the tracker didn't fire on noise.
The assumption that matters most
v3 marks Jan-Feb 2025 as euphoria (TRUMP memecoin launch sent SOL to $295, BTC ETF records, mainstream mania). If you had NOT called euphoria in real-time, the BTC 20% trim of $125K would not have fired, and v3 would land closer to v2's ~$800K. This is the single biggest judgment call in the whole strategy — recognizing euphoria when you're inside it. Rule 5 is designed around exactly this: the fear of selling is the strongest signal.
The yield bucket is the real story
Total flows into yield in v3: ~$400K across all sources (DCA, SOL exits, BTC euphoria, compound interest). Against your $508K freedom target at 11.8%, this puts you at 70% of the way to $5K/mo passive by April 2026. For comparison, in reality you sit at ~9% of that target. Every trigger that fires feeds this engine; every missed rule weakens it. The rules are not about the sells — they're about compounding yield.
ASSUMPTIONS & LIMITATIONS
Price data: Monthly opens from CoinGecko for BTC and SOL. Intra-month highs used for SOL ladder trigger checks (realistic — limit orders fire intraday).
Yield APY: Modeled at 7% flat (conservative). Real Pendle rates of 11-15% in 2025-2026 would have compounded yield faster, making v3 even higher.
Euphoria judgment calls: Nov-Dec 2021 (clear) and Jan-Feb 2025 (TRUMP mania, SOL ATH, ETF records). Reasonable but subjective.
S&P: Modeled at ~10% annual appreciation, simplified.
Alts: Not modeled in backtest — strategy forbids new alts. If legacy positions existed, they would exit via activation ladder (same mechanism as SOL but using combined bucket value).